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  • Daniel Evans 5:04 pm on January 16, 2012 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Alabama, LSU Examples Show Problems with Over-signing 

    I get fired up a lot about sports, with football dominating those times, but nothing gets me more fired up than the issue of over-signing in college football. I hate it and I think every school that does it should be put on probation in some form.

    Nick Saban and Alabama have 27 commitments, but only 25 guys can receive scholarships.

    There are countless examples of players being left out in the cold by a college football program that recruited them heavily for months, but the latest two are from the teams that competed in the national championship game. First, LSU lost offensive lineman Patrick Miller to Auburn after LSU told Miller they had only five scholarships available and seven players enrolling early. When did LSU decide was the right time to inform Miller of this? The day after the national championship game. That’s right. Miller probably watched the game in purple and gold, bragged to fans and family that he would be playing next season for the Tigers, and then found out the next day that he was welcome to pay his way to LSU to play football.

    Just days later, Alabama told running back Justin Taylor that the Crimson Tide had 27 commitments and could only sign 25 players. What was Nick Saban’s solution? Ask Taylor to wait to sign until next season and incredibly he complied.  Taylor missed his senior season of football with a knee injury, meaning he will be out of football for two years before he takes his first snap with Alabama. If Taylor had just injured his knee and needed a rehabilitation period, I’d applaud Saban for not giving up on a kid that got injured at the worst possible time. Instead, it appears Taylor would be in good football shape by the time the fall came around. Saban has promised to sign a paper showing that he will sign Taylor next season, but the running back is taking a big chance. Right now, Alabama has an open battle brewing for playing time at the running back spot, since Heisman finalist Trent Richardson elected to move onto the NFL.

    The SEC decided last season to limit signing to 25 players each season. Some coaches, like former Mississippi Houston Nutt, Saban, and LSU’s Les Miles are known as frequent over-signers that always receive more commitments than they can actually sign.  Obviously, that didn’t stop Saban or Miles from getting more commitments than possible, while keeping in mind that only 25 players could actually play football under scholarship next fall from his 2012 recruiting class.

    It’s time for the NCAA to step in against programs that over-sign or receive too many commitments. It’s unfair to the kids involved. Don’t try to tell me that coaches are trying to protect themselves from kids that don’t qualify either. That’s BS. Coaches should have to live with their decisions. If a player is close to the edge of qualifying, don’t recruit him. It would make players spend more time focusing on the classroom. Besides, it doesn’t matter. If a player is immensely talented, somebody is going to take a chance on him–even if he’s close to not qualifying.

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  • Daniel Evans 8:06 pm on January 10, 2012 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Mike Davis to Georgia? He Says No, Picture Says Yes 

    imageAlthough four star running back Mike Davis won’t come out and say it, he’s probably headed to Georgia next season. Davis tweeted this picture a few days ago, featuring himself, current Georgia running back Isaiah Crowell, recent Georgia commitment Keith Marshall, and prospect Todd Gurley as the Bulldogs’ “four horseman.”

    Davis was originally a Florida commitment but de-committed when he says the Gators broke a promise the school made to him not to recruit another running back (other than Gators commit Matt Jones). Davis told the Atlanta Journal Constitutional that the Gators sent a large portion of the coaching staff to recruit Marshall, who eventually signed with Georgia. Once Davis found out about Marshall’s recruitment, he opened his recruitment back up.

    Davis has denied repeatedly that he has committed to the Bulldogs, although he says he has made a decision on where he will play his football next season.

    If Georgia does sign Davis, you’d have to wonder why the Bulldogs would want Marshall, Crowell, and Davis. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson probably salivates at the thought of having these three guys in his triple option offense, but Mark Richt would likely have to redshirt at least one running back in 2012.

    For now, let’s remember that even Marshall could decide to sign somewhere else before National Signing Day, despite being a Bulldogs verbal commitment. Davis’ recruitment has been one of the dizziest in recent memory, so this could continue for a while.

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  • Daniel Evans 4:38 pm on January 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    College Football Top 25 for 2012 2.0: USC Leaps to No. 1 

    LAST UPDATED: FRIDAY, JANUARY 6, 2012 (4:36 PM): For media inquiries, comments, or questions please email DanielEvans@CollegeFootballSaturday.com.

    Since I ranked my initial top 25 for 2012, a lot of players have made their decisions about whether or not they are going pro or not. The biggest surprise was that USC quarterback Matt Barkley elected to return and in my opinion his decision has made the Trojans an instant national championship contender in 2012. A lot of players still haven’t went public with their decisions. A lot of players in the national championship game will likely make their announcement directly after or in the days following the game. Once those players finalize the list of underclassmen declaring for the NFL Draft, I will make a final “January ranking” for 2012. 

    This time I have extended my list to 30 teams. Next time, I will try to rank a few more too.

    The hardest thing about ranking a top 25 this early is deciding how much weight to place on bowl games. For instance, West Virginia’s romp over Clemson turned a lot of heads. Is it more important to rank a team based off how the players coming back next year played all season or how they finished the season (hot or cold)? This top 25 has a mixture of both. 

    Check it out and as always feel free to email me and let me know what you think.

    The number in parenthesis shows each team’s ranking in my initial top 25 for 2012.

    USC_thumb[3]1 (6). USC Trojans: Quarterback Matt Barkley’s decision has moved the Trojans up to the No. 1 slot for 2012.  With receivers Robert Woods (8th in the nation in receiving yards per game) and Marquis Lee (17th in the nation in receiving yards per game) back, the Trojans passing game will be explosive. Finding a tailback capable of carrying the load will be Lane Kiffin’s toughest assignment offensively. The return of safety T. J. McDonald helps a defense that is set to return nine starters.  This is a team that gave up a lot of yards in 2010, but had the nation’s 17th rated scoring defense. If those numbers improve like they are expected to, USC will be one of the nation’s elite teams again.

    LSU_thumb[6]2 (1). LSU Tigers: Quarterbacks Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee graduate, leaving Zach Mettenberger as the likely starter at QB for LSU next season. Mettenberger will have a lot of help in the backfield with Spencer Ware and Michael Ford coming back. Wide receiver Rueben Randle could test the NFL Draft waters, but we probably won’t know for sure until after Monday’s national title game. Tight end Deangelo Peterson graduates along with four defensive players for the Tigers.  Cornerback Tyrann Matthieu will be back as an NFL ready junior, but Matthieu’s running mate Morris Claiborne will likely move onto the NFL. The Tigers defensive line should be stout with Barkevious Mingo, Michael Brockers, and Bennie Logan among the players set to return.

    Oregon_thumb[3]3 (3). Oregon Ducks: Although it looks like star running back LaMichael James is headed to the NFL, Oregon will still be hard to stop offensively in 2012. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas have already shown what they can do when given the ball and next season they will shine on an Oregon offense that always seems to be moving full speed ahead. Quarterback Darron Thomas is back with two years of experience behind him. On defense, graduation will leave holes all over the secondary. If Cliff Harris had been able to handle the spotlight, Oregon would look a little more stout defensively going into next season.

    Oklahoma_thumb[3]4 (11). Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners are a completely different team when you factor in quarterback Landry Jones returning. Jones returns with a  veteran offensive line in front of him and three experienced running backs behind him. If Dominique Whaley can stay healthy, Oklahoma’s running game should help a passing game that will miss Ryan Broyles. Of course, receiver Kenny Stiles is no slouch. Linebacker Ronnell Lewis’ loss decision to leave early stings, especially when it is paired with the loss of star linebacker Travis Lewis.

    Georgia_thumb[3]5 (2). Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia’s turnaround from 0-2 to 10-4 has Georgia fans thinking big for 2012. Quarterback Aaron Murray returns and should shine in his third season as a starter in Athens. Running back Isaiah Crowell should be comfortable to the speed of the college game and will be expected to breakout. Defensively, it looks like linebacker Jarvis Jones will return. His return helps a unit that loses its best overall playmaker in cornerback Brandon Boykin.

    Texas_thumb[3]6 (5). Texas Longhorns: Like USC, Texas should return as a national player next season. The Longhorns return 18 starters on a team that showed improvement from 2010. Obviously, choosing a quarterback between Case McCoy and David Ash will be the main task this offseason. Running back Malcolm Brown continued to get better each week this past season and should be among the Big 12’s top running backs in 2012. On defense, only three starters graduate from a unit that ranked 12th nationally in total defense.

    SouthCarolina_thumb[3]7 (4). South Carolina Gamecocks: Although South Carolina’s 2011season featured their  starting quarterback getting dismissed and their starting running back tearing his ACL, Steve Spurrier’s team showed that it can play with any team in the country. The Gamecocks will return Marcus Lattimore, who will have plenty of time to rest up this offseason. Quarterback Connor Shaw is finally the guy in Columbia and should play better without having to look to the sidelines every play to see if someone is replacing him. South Carolina does lose wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and defensive lineman Melvin Ingram, two guys that are impossible to replace.

    Alabama_thumb[3]8 (8). Alabama Crimson Tide: It’s hard to move Alabama up or down without knowing who is going pro from the Crimson Tide. More than likely, we will find out a lot Tuesday morning after the national title game. We do know that Alabama is losing most of its defense and that cornerback Dre’ Kirkpatrick and LB Dont’a Hightower’s could elect to move onto the NFL. Running back Trent Richardson is also expected to declare for the draft. On offense, wide receivers Marquis Maze, Darius Hanks, Brandon Gibson graduate. Quarterback A. J. McCarron will be back and running back Eddie Lacy will see a larger role in the offense, even if Richardson does decide to return.

    Arkansas_thumb[3]9 (10). Arkansas Razorbacks: With quarterback Tyler Wilson back, Arkansas’ offense will be very good despite the loss of three of its top four receivers. The return of Knile Davis, who missed almost the entire season with an ankle injury, will help a Razorbacks team that relied way too much on the pass in 2011. The defense will have to improve if Arkansas hopes to improve its win mark from this season, but the losses of defensive end Jake Bequette and linebacker Jerry Franklin make that a tough task.

    Michigan_thumb[3]10 (17). Michigan Wolverines: I fear that the Michigan hype might’ve pushed the Wolverines a little too high in this top 25, but even I can’t ignore the Denard Robinson hype. Robinson’s running ability makes Michigan a tough team to beat and Fitz Toussaint’s 1,000 yard season can only help the Michigan quarterback find running room. Can the Wolverines find replacements for three defensive lineman that graduate and can the defense continue to improve? Now that a BCS bowl win is in the books, Michigan fans are going to be expecting a Rose Bowl appearance.

    FloridaState_thumb[3]11 (7). Florida State Seminoles: Yes, Florida State is set up to disappoint again in 2012, but the talent in Tallahassee is undeniable. Quarterback E. J, Manuel is back but the key to the ‘Noles season may be its rushing attack. Florida State ranked 104th nationally in rushing yards per game in 2011.

    Nebraska_thumb[3]12 (18). Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska’s offense should improve in Taylor Martinez’s third year as the starting quarterback. Running back Rex Burkhead might finally get some national attention next season. Bo Pelini will need to focus on finding playmaking wide receivers and replacing three great defensive players in DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Denard.

    VirginiaTech_thumb[3]13 (12). Virginia Tech Hokies: Frank Beamer has earned the right to have his teams ranked high each season, no matter how little they return. Offensively, the Hokies will need to find playmakers around quarterback Logan Thomas. The departure of running back David Wilson to the NFL is a huge loss. Defensively, Virginia Tech will be among the nation’s best after ranking 8th in scoring defense nationally in 2011.

    Wisconsin_thumb[3]14 (13). Wisconsin Badgers: It’ll be interesting to see if Wisconsin can overcome the loss of quarterback Russell Wilson. The decision to turn to Wilson in 2011 resulted in a Big Ten championship, but it may backfire a little in 2012 when the Badgers go to Jon Badmayr. Running back Montee Ball returns, but he won’t sneak up on anyone next season. He will have the all-time career rushing touchdowns record in sight.

    OklahomaState_thumb[3]15 (14). Oklahoma State Cowboys: The losses of quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon will be tough to overcome, but Mike Gundy’s program appears to be ready for that task. Quarterback Clint Chelf will be the preseason favorite to the be the Cowboys starter next season. Running back Joseph Randle will return along with receivers Isaiah Anderson and Tracy Moore. The offense probably won’t be as explosive as it was in 2011, so the key to the Cowboys season might be Oklahoma State’s defense. Eight starters are projected to return defensively, but the unit will need to improve a lot.

    West Virginia16 (NR). West Virginia Mountaineers: I am buying into the hype of the Mountaineers after watching them score 70 points against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. West Virginia returns senior quarterback Geno Smith and speedster wide receiver Tavon Austin, the main two components to West Virginia’s offensive outbreak against the Tigers. How will the defense handle the Big 12, where offense is necessary and defense is optional?

    MichiganState17 (NR). Michigan State Spartans: At first glance, it looked like the loss of quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver B. J. Cunningham was too much for the Spartans to overcome. It might still be, but Mark Dantonio’s program has the look of a consistent winner. Whoever the quarterback ends up being, he will want to hand off to running backs Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell early and often. On defense, basically every impact playmaker returns except for defensive tackle Jerel Worthy.

    KansasState_thumb[3]18 (22). Kansas State Wildcats: I intentionally under-ranked Kansas State in my initial rankings, because Bill Synder’s team won’t surprise anyone in 2012. In general, when a team greatly surpasses its expectations during one season, it comes back to earth some the next season. Quarterback Colin Klein should get some preseason Heisman love based off what he accomplished in 2011.

    Auburn_thumb[3]19 (15). Auburn Tigers: Auburn is one of the hardest teams to rank right now. Running back Michael Dyer’s decision to transfer has left the Tigers with a big hole at running back. Although speedster Onterio McCalebb can make big plays, it’s hard to see him as an every down back in the SEC. Can Auburn’s offense be effective without Guz Malzahn calling the plays?

    Clemson_thumb[3]20 (21). Clemson Tigers: Man, that game against West Virginia was brutal. The good news for Clemson fans is that there is a lot to look forward to next season. Quarterback Tahj Boyd returns along with sensational wide receiver Sammy Watkins. If the Tigers can replace three defensive lineman and sure up a defense that struggled mightily down the stretch, Clemson can play its way back into a BCS bowl next year.

    Florida_thumb[3]21 (23). Florida Gators: The Gators’ defense will return 10 starters next season and should be among the nation’s best. All of Florida’s inconsistencies are on the offensive side of the ball. Whoever the next quarterback is—Jacoby Brissett or Jeff Driskel—Florida will need to find an effective running game. Right now, Mike Gillislee looks like the projected starter, but the Gators are looking for another option on the recruiting trails.

    GeorgiaTech_thumb[3]22 (16). Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Paul Johnson continues to win in the ACC with his triple option. If not for a couple of slip ups against Virginia and Miami (Fla.), the Yellow Jackets might have been ranked in the top 10 nationally.  Quarterback Tevin Washington is back, but his main receiving threat, Stephen Hill, has elected to leave early for the NFL.

    NotreDame_thumb[3]23 (20). Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The best news for the Irish this offseason was that linebacker Manti Te’o is returning for his senior season. Quarterback Tommy Rees and running back Cierre Wood return on an offense that figures to look a lot different without wide receiver Michael Floyd running through defenses.

    OhioState_thumb[3]24 (19). Ohio State Buckeyes: Urban Meyer raises expectations in Columbus, but there a lot of questions for the Buckeyes. Although young quarterback Braxton Miller returns, Ohio State has to find a way to get plays in the vertical passing game. The Buckeyes ranked 117th in passing yards in 2011. The loss of running back Dan Herron, Ohio State’s best offensive player, won’t make passing the ball any easier next year.

    TCU_thumb[3]25 (9). TCU Horned Frogs: I admit, I have done a quick 180 on the Horned Frogs in the last few weeks. I love what TCU has coming back, but I worry that the wear and tear of the Big 12 might affect them. I’d rather wait and see how well TCU transitions before ranking them highly. Quarterback Casey Pachall developed nicely in 2012 and should get even better next season. Plus, the defense should look closer to what we are used to from a Gary Patterson coached team.

    BoiseState_thumb[3]26 (25). Boise State Broncos: Life without Kellen Moore begins and only seven starters are projected to return. Don’t count them out, because Chris Peterson will probably find a way to lead this team to 10 wins.

    NorthCarolina_thumb[3]27 (24). North Carolina Tar Heels: With starting QB Bryn Renner, RB Giovani Bernard, and seven other offensive starters back, North Carolina should improve offensively in 2012. Obviously, the losses of DE Quinton Coples and LB Zach Brown on defense are hard to overcome, but eight defensive starters return.

    Washington28 (NR): Washington Huskies: Quarterback Keith Price will likely become a household name in 2012. Expect the Huskies to compete with USC and Oregon for the Pac 12 title. If running back Chris Polk had elected to return, I’d have Washington in the top 20.

    Louisville29 (NR): Louisville Cardinals: With West Virginia moving onto the Big 12, somebody has to win the Big East. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be fun to watch as he continues to develop. Charlie Strong should have the best defense he’s had while at Louisville.

    Stanford30 (NR): Stanford Cardinal: I think it’s only fair to give Stanford some credit for what the Cardinal have accomplished the last few years. Although quarterback Andrew Luck is gone, Stanford should still field a fringe top 25 team. Running back Stepfan Taylor will be the featured man offensively.

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  • Daniel Evans 12:28 pm on December 22, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Kiel to Announce Plans This Weekend 

    Columbus (Ind.) East quarterback Gunner Kiel will announce his college choice this weekend. Kiel originally committed to Indiana, but will now decide between LSU, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt.

    Kiel is ranked as one of the nation’s top high school prospects.

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  • Daniel Evans 6:40 pm on December 14, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    College Football Top 25 for 2012: LSU, Georgia Lead Initial Version 1.0 

    LAST UPDATED: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16TH (9:48 AM): Fixed a few details that were inadvertently incorrect. For media inquiries, comments, or questions please email DanielEvans@CollegeFootballSaturday.com.

    It’s very difficult to create a preseason top 25 in mid-December, but I feel like my list below is among the most accurate you will find anywhere. I plan on updating it throughout the bowl season as players decide to leave/move onto the next level, so keep checking back for the latest updates. Recruiting will also get factored in more heavily once National Signing Day draws nearer.  I also want to point out that this is a very, VERY early look at how the teams are shaping up for next season. This is only one man’s thoughts. Everyone would rightfully have different opinions about a poll like this one.

    LSU1. LSU Tigers: Articles have already been written arguing that LSU could actually be better next season than this season. A quick glance of the Tigers’ roster disputes that, but at this point it’s hard not to put them as preseason No. 1 for 2012. LSU will lose both of its starting quarterbacks Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee to graduation. Zach Mettenberger, who many expected to come in and take the starting job, will be Les Miles’ starter at the position next season. The Tigers will return all three of its running backs, including Spencer Ware and Michael Ford. Wide receiver Rueben Randle could test the NFL Draft waters. Tight end Deangelo Peterson is gone, along with two starters along the offensive line. On defense, four key players graduate. Defensive end Kendrick Adams and linebackers Stefoin Francois, Ryan Baker, and Karnell Hatcher are seniors. Cornerback Morris Claiborne is all but gone to the NFL and defensive end Sam Montgomery could elect to make the jump as well.  If Montgomery returns, he will return to one of the nation’s strongest defensive lines. Defensive end Barkevious Mingo is set to return, as are defensive tackles Michael Brockers and Bennie Logan.  One thing is for sure: Star cornerback Tyrann Matthieu will be back for the Tigers.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB Jordan Jefferson, TE Deangelo Peterson

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: CB Morris Claiborne, DE Sam Montgomery, WR Reuben Randle

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 6/6

    Georgia2. Georgia Bulldogs: After a season where the Bulldogs improved throughout the season, Georgia fans should expect a great season in 2012. Starting quarterback Aaron Murray will return as an experienced junior. Running back Isaiah Crowell will also be back with a year of playing in the SEC under his belt.  Mark Richt will try to talk tight end Orson Charles into coming back, despite being the second rated TE to Dwayne Allen on a lot of NFL draft boards. The rest of the offensive line will need some work. Center Ben Jones has been the starter for four seasons in Athens and now he will move onto the NFL. Both offensive tackles graduate. Wide receiver Tavarres King will be back to lead a wide out core that will bring back its main targets. Only two defensive players are slated to leave through graduation for the Bulldogs: DE DeAngelo Tyson and CB Brandon Boykin. Linebacker Jarvis Jones, who transferred to Georgia from USC, could move onto the NFL.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: CB Brandon Boykin, DE DeAngelo Tyson

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: LB Jarvis Jones

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/8

    Oregon3. Oregon Ducks: With most of their offensive stars back, the Ducks will likely continue to score at will on most teams in 2012. QB Darron Thomas will be back, along with running backs Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas. Heck, even LaMichael James could return but at this point, I consider that doubtful. James probably realizes that another injury filled year could ruin his draft stock in 2013, so he will probably leave now. TE David Paulson is a big loss, but with most of the key components back from last season’s high powered attack, don’t expect Oregon to miss a beat. On defense, six starters leave. The hardest hit area is the secondary where S Josh Kaddu, CB Anthony Gildon, and S Eddie Pleasant all graduate. Plus, CB Cliff Harris was just dismissed from the team.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Lavasier Tunei

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: RB LaMichael James

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/4

    SouthCarolina4. South Carolina Gamecocks: It was almost as if the Gamecocks flew under the radar in 2011. Stephen Garcia’s abysmal play and his eventual dismissal, followed by RB Marcus Lattimore’s injury, set the stage for Georgia to win the SEC East. Next season, Steve Spurrier’s team will be right back in the mix again. Quarterback Connor Shaw returns and with Garcia out of the picture forever, he can relax and play football. Lattimore will be back as a junior. Although WR Alshon Jeffery is expected to leave for the NFL, Ace Sanders does return at wideout. On defense, the loss of Melvin Ingram cannot be calculated. He impacted every play for the Gamecocks this season, but if former No. 1 overall recruit Jadeveon Clowney reaches his potential, he will be even better than Ingram. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore could leave early for the NFL, but for now I’ll project him to return for his senior season.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: DE Melvin Ingram

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: WR Alshon Jeffery

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 8/7

    Texas5. Texas Longhorns: Next season could be the year where Texas finally returns to the national stage. The Longhorns return everyone on offense except guard David Snow, including quarterbacks Case McCoy and David Ash. Young running back Malcolm Brown continues to get better reach week. Quarterbacks Case McCoy and David Ash return, but one of them will have to become “the guy” if the Longhorns want to reach this ranking. On defense, only three players leave. DT Kheeston Randall, LB Keenan Robinson, and S Blake Gideon all graduate. Defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat, who has six sacks as a sophomore this season, will be back as a force on the Longhorns’ defensive line.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: DT Kheeston Randall, LB Keenan Robinson, S Blake Gideon

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 10/8

    USC6. USC Trojans: With the Trojans able to make a bowl game for the first time in the Lane Kiffin era, a lot of people will finally realize that he has been able to stabilize the USC program. In year three, Kiffin is going to field a top 15 team. Even if QB Matt Barkley leaves (here’s guessing that he will), the Trojans will still return WR Robert Woods and Marquis Lee. Plus, the Trojans are loaded at running back. The quarterback battle will be fun to watch, with Cody Kessler and Max Wittek looking like the early frontrunners if Barkley does enter the NFL Draft. OT Matt Kalil would probably be crazy not to join Barkley in the NFL Draft, because he is projected to be a top 5 pick. On defense, USC will return nearly everyone. Safety T. J. McDonald may make the jump, but other than that, nearly everyone else is back in the mix. Only DT Christian Tupou and DT Dajohn Harris graduate as starters.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: RB Marc Tyler

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: QB Matt Barkley, OT Matt Kalil

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/9

    FloridaState7. Florida State Seminoles: Once again, the Seminoles failed to reach expectations in 2011. Next season, expectations will be high once again. And yes, I realize they never reach expectations. Quarterback E. J. Manuel returns along with the ‘Noles top rusher in Devonta Freeman. Freeman will likely be the feature back for Florida State next season after sharing time with Jermaine Thomas as a freshman.  Two of the Seminoles best playmakers leave in WR Bert Reed and TE Beau Reliford. On defense, linebacker Nigel Bradham and S Terrance Parks graduate. It’s not crazy to think that DE Brandon Jenkins could jump to the NFL as a junior or that OT Zebrie Sanders could join him. For now, I’ll guess that both players stick around for their senior seasons.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Bert Reed, TE Beau Reliford

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 9/9

    Alabama8. Alabama Crimson Tide: The Crimson Tide’s defense was tremendous in 2011, but it loses a lot next season. Seniors Josh Chapman and Nick Gentry will be gone off of a dominant defensive line, as will graduating linebackers Jerrell Harris, Alex Watkins, and Courtney Upshaw.  Junior Dont’a Hightower would almost be crazy not to leave for the NFL, since he figures to be picked within the first two rounds of the draft. Even LB Nico Johnson has a decision to make. In the secondary, DeQuan Menzie and Mark Barron—one of the nation’s top ballhawks—graduate. Cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick– who is almost certain to be a first round selection– and safety Robert Lester might leave as well.  Offensively, the main losses will be at receiver. Quarterback A. J. McCarron figures to improve in his second year as a starter, but he will have to manage without WRs Marquis Maze, Darius Hanks, Brandon Gibson, or tight end Brad Smelley. Running back Trent Richardson will be a first round NFL Draft pick if he forgoes his senior season, leaving Eddie Lacy in the backfield for the Tide. Alabama’s offensive line should remain intact, with Barrett Jones and D. J. Fluker leading the way.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: S Mark Barron, CB DeQuan Menzie, LB Courtney Upshaw, LB Jerrell Harris, DT Josh Campman, DT Nick Gentry, WR Marquis Maze, WR Darius Hanks, C William Vlachos, TE Brad Smelley

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: RB Trent Richardson, LB Dont’a Hightower, S Robert Lester, CB Dre Krikpatrick

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 6/3

    TCU9. TCU Horned Frogs: You’d have to think that Gary Patterson has had his last “down” year for a while at TCU. The Horned Frogs found a great quarterback in Casey Pachall and saw him develop as the season played out in 2011. Pachall’s best playmakers return around him in running back Ed Wesley and wide receiver Josh Boyce. The offensive line takes some hits with three starters graduating, but Pachall’s improvement should help compensate for that early on in 2012. On defense, LB Tank Carder’s graduation leaves a hole. Other than Carder, CB Greg McCoy, and S Johnny Fobbs, every other starter returns for TCU. This is a team that could be right back into a BCS bowl next season.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: LB Tank Carder

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/8

    Arkansas10. Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas had its moment in the spotlight this season after rising to No. 3 in the BCS before its showdown against LSU. The offense for the Razorbacks—never a problem under Bobby Petrino—should be very good again. Quarterback Tyler Wilson, a year older in the SEC, will be back as a senior. Running back Knile Davis figures to return after missing the entire season with an ankle injury. Tailback Dennis Johnson also returns. Although wide receivers Jarius Wright, Greg Childs, and Joe Adams leave, Arkansas does return Cobi Hamilton and Marquel Wade at that position. Defensive end Jake Bequette’s absence will be felt for the Razorbacks next year. Linebacker Jerry Franklin also graduates. In the secondary three starters leave, including defensive back Jerico Nelson.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Jarius Wright, WR Greg Childs, WR Joe Adams, S Tremain Thomas, DE Jake Bequette

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/6

    Oklahoma11. Oklahoma Sooners: Bob Stoops’ team began the 2011 season as the nation’s preseason No. 1 ranked team and finished well out of the national championship picture. With lowered expectations, Oklahoma may surprise some people next season. Quarterback Landry Jones is projected to be a first or second round NFL Draft pick if he elects to leave. If Jones leaves, Drew Allen will likely be the starter with Blake Bell back as the short yardage quarterback for the Sooners. Wide receiver Ryan Broyles and tight end James Hanna graduate, leaving major holes offensively. Only one offensive lineman graduates—tackle Donald Stephenson. Wide receiver Kenny Stills will be back, along with the Sooners three headed monster at running back with Brennan Clay, Dominique Whaley, and Roy Finch. Linebacker Travis Lewis graduates defensively, along with defensive end Frank Alexander and cornerback Jamell Fleming. Defensive end Ronnell Lewis could also choose to move onto the NFL.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Ryan Broyles, LB Travis Lewis

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: QB Landry Jones

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/8

    VirginiaTech12. Virginia Tech Hokies: Virginia Tech will return its biggest offensive playmakers next season in quarterback Logan Thomas and running back David Wilson. Including tight end Chris Drager, the Hokies lose five of six starters on the offensive line. Only center Andrew Miller returns. On defense, S Eddie Whitley—one of the best playmakers on the Virginia Tech defense—graduates to give way to a group of three sophomores at the position.  Cornerback Jayron Hosley could leave for the NFL Draft, but at this point that appears unlikely. Hosley isn’t being projected as a first round pick by most of the knowledgeable draft sources.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Jarrett Boykin, WR Danny Coale, S Eddie Whitley

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 4/10

    Wisconsin13. Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers one year rental on QB Russell Wilson resulted in a Big Ten championship. Now, Wisconsin will have to turn to Jon Badmayr to run the offense. Running back Montee Ball figures to return after his record breaking season. WR Nick Toon’s graduation is the biggest loss—outside of Wilson’s departure—for the Badgers offensively. On defense, five starters depart, including CB Antoni Fenelus, who lead the team in interceptions in 2011.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB Russell Wilson, WR Nick Toon

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 6/6

    OklahomaState14. Oklahoma State Cowboys: We’ll find out how much of an elite program Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy has put together in Stillwater next season. With QB Brandon Weeden graduating and WR Justin Blackmon likely going to the NFL, the Cowboys offense will look a lot different next season. It looks like Clint Chelf will be the preseason favorite to be Oklahoma State’s newest signal caller. Running back Joseph Randle will be back and will probably get the ball even more than he did last season. Wide receivers Isaiah Anderson and Tracy Moore return. Somebody will have to become the new lead receiver for the Cowboys in Blackmon’s absence. Three starting offensive lineman graduate as well. Although the Cowboys are known for their offense, Gundy’s team may have to rely on its defense more next season. Defensive ends Richetti Jones and Jamie Blatnick graduate, but every linebacker starter will return. Safety Markelle Martin is the only other loss on defense. Even kicker Quinn Sharp, who is among the nation’s best, returns for the Cowboys.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB Brandon Weeden, WR Josh Cooper, S Markelle Martin

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: WR Justin Blackmon

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 5/8

    Auburn15. Auburn Tigers: The loss of Cam Newton was as big as most of us “experts” thought it might be. Gene Chizik knows he needs better quarterback play in order to compete in the SEC West. The question for the Tigers is whether they will stick with Clint Moseley or make the swap to Kiehl Frazier, who looks every bit like the future lead man for the Tigers. Running backs Onterio McCalebb and Michael Dyer both return, as does underrated WR Emory Blake. Even TE Phillip Lutzenkirchen, who seems to catch every big touchdown for Auburn, returns next season. The Tigers defense was extremely young this season and it showed on the field. Next season, Auburn should improve significantly defensively with nine starters back.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB Barrett Trotter, WR Quindarius Carr

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 9/9

    GeorgiaTech16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Paul Johnson continues to win with his triple option offense. If the Yellow Jackets could have avoided a couple of slip ups to Virginia and Miami (Fla.) during the regular season, Georgia Tech could have been a real threat in the ACC.  On offense, the returning core is pretty impressive. Only running back Roddy Jones, a staple of Jones’ triple option offense, will graduate. Quarterback Tevin Washington returns with running back Orwin Smith and wide receiver Stephen Hill. The entire offensive line will be back as well. Defensively, the news is almost just as good. Defensive end Jason Peters and defensive tackle Logan Walls graduate. Linebacker Steven Sylvester and safety Rashaad Reid are also gone, but leading tackler Julian Burnett will be back, along with sack specialist Jeremiah Attaochu.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Tyler Melton, DE Jason Peters, DT Logan Walls, LB Steven Sylvester, S Rashaad Reid

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL:  None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 10/7

    Michigan17. Michigan Wolverines: Everyone will look at the return of quarterback Denard Robinson and project Michigan to be ranked higher than they probably should be. Running back Fitz Toussaint returns after a season where he ran for 1,000 yards and gave Brady Hoke a second running threat behind Robinson.  Wide receivers Junior Hemingway and Kelvin Grady graduate, but Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon return. The other losses, starting with the offensive line, are going to be tough to swallow. Center David Molk, one of the best in the country at his position, graduates. Offensive tackle Mark Huyge and tight end Kevin Koger—who finished third on the Wolverines in receptions this season—also leave. On the defensive line, a lot of work will be needed.  Defensive tackles Will Heininger, Mike Martin, and Ryan Van Bergen all will be missed. Cornerback Troy Woolfolk, who has started ten games for the Wolverines this season, is the biggest loss in the Michigan secondary.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: C David Molk, WR Junior Hemingway, DT Ryan Van Bergen, CB Troy Woolfolk

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL:  None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/7

    Nebraska18. Nebraska Cornhuskers: A lot of people thought Nebraska could instantly win the Big Ten in their first year in the conference, but that didn’t go as planned for the Cornhuskers. Next year, they will enter the season among the conference favorites. Quarterback Taylor Martinez will return and hopefully develop more as a passer. Running back Rex Burkhead, one of the nation’s best kept secrets, will also return. There’s only one senior on the entire offense, tackle Jemarcus Hendrick. Nebraska has to hope that its young receiving corps—Kenny Bell, Quincy Enunwa, Jamal Turner—develop and become downfield playmakers, but the passing game’s improvement will start and end with Martinez. In 2010, Nebraska’s defense was a little bit of a disappointment. With seniors like DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Denard back, Nebraska was expected to have a dominant defense again. That didn’t happen. With those three gone—along with S Austin Cassidy—Nebraska will have to rebuild the core of its defense.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, CB Alfonzo Dennard, S Austin Cassidy

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 9/7

    OhioState19. Ohio State Buckeyes: With Urban Meyer in Columbus, things are really looking up for the Buckeyes. Meyer will love quarterback Braxton Miller, who appears to be a perfect fit for Meyer’s offense.  Miller loves to run and he showed it by gaining 695 yards this season on the ground.  Carlos Hyde, a soon-to-be junior, will have to replace Dan Herron as the lead back for the Buckeyes. The biggest losses on offense are center Michael Brewster and OT Mike Adams. Meyer will need to revamp an offensive line losing three total starters. Tight end Jake Stoneburner will be back, along with receivers Corey Brown and Devin Smith. On the other side of the ball, Ohio State looks like it will return all eleven starters.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: RB Dan Herron, OT Mike Adams, C Michael Brewster

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 8/11

    NotreDame20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Year three looks like it will be now or never for Irish head coach Brian Kelly. Quarterback Tommy Rees and running back Cierre Wood will be back in the backfield for Notre Dame.  The biggest loss will be wide receiver Michael Floyd, because his 95 receptions aren’t going to be replicated by anyone on this roster next season. Wide receivers TJ Jones and TE Tyler Effert (94 total catches combined this season) will try to make up for Floyd’s loss next season. Effert could decide to go to the NFL, but at this point I’m projecting that he will return. Replacing three offensive line starters will be Kelly’s toughest challenge on offense. On defense, the Irish received great news when linebacker Manti Te’o announced he would return for his senior season. The Irish do have some major losses defensively though. Notre Dame will have to replace DE Ethan Johnson (8 starts), LB Darius Fleming (46 tackles), CB Gary Grab (2 INTs), CB Robert Blanton (2 INTs), S Harrison Smith (84 tackles), and S Jamoris Slaughter (INT). In other words, this will be a new look defense next season.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: WR Michael Floyd, CB Gary Gray, CB Harrison Smith

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL:

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/4

    Clemson21. Clemson Tigers: Clemson had an up and down year in 2010, but a lot of its main stars will return next season. Offensively, the Tigers appear set to return nearly every significant player. Quarterback Tahj Boyd will be back, along with backfield mate Andre Ellington. At wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins and the sensational Sammy Watkins return. Tight end Dwayne Allen will probably be the only Tiger to make the NFL jump, but nobody can blame him. The offensive line will need restructuring, with tackles Phillip Price and Landon Walker graduating. Guard Antione McClain is also a senior. The defensive line will need some work, with DE Andre Branch and DTs Ronnie Moore and Brandon Thompson graduating. A lot of sophomores will be asked to pick up the slack on the defensive line, which is a scary proposition in a run heavy ACC. The only other loss defensively is CB Coty Sensabaugh.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: DE Andre Branch, DT Brandon Thompson, DT Ronnie Moore, OT Phillip Price, OT Landon Walker, OG Antoine McClain

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: TE Dwayne Allen

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 8/7

    KansasState22. Kansas State Wildcats: One thing is for sure: Bill Snyder’s team won’t sneak up on anyone in 2012. The Wildcats return QB Colin Klein, who will be a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, and most of their offense. The biggest hit area is offensive line, where three starters depart. Running back John Hubert will be back. On defense, six starters return. The Wildcats will need to find replacements for safety Tyson Hartman, LB Emmauel Lamur, DT Ray Kibble, and DE Jordan Voelker.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: S Tyson Hartman, LB Emmauel Lamur, DT Ray Kibble

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 8/6

    Florida23. Florida Gators: Right now, it’s hard to believe the Gators were a national powerhouse two years ago. With the departure of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Florida gets a new start on offense. Starting quarterback John Brantley graduates, but backups Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel saw a lot of playing time due to Brantley’s injuries in 2011. Speedster running backs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps graduate, leaving Florida with a big hole at running back. Mike Gillislee will be a senior, but he hasn’t shown the ability to carry the load for Florida during his time in Gainesville. Wide receiver Deonte Thompson leaves as well. The good news for whoever Florida’s new OC might be is that he will have a young but experienced offensive line to work with. Only center Dan Wenger graduates. Defensively, Florida looks very stout for 2012. Only defensive tackle Jaye Howard graduates, but Omar Hunter is expected to move into that spot and be successful. A team that started seven underclassmen defensively this season should now transition into a team that is loaded with defensive playmakers.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB John Brantley, RB Chris Rainey, RB Jeff Demps. WR Deonte Thompson, DT Jaye Howard

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 7/10 

    NorthCarolina24. North Carolina Tar Heels: Although North Carolina fell off the map a little after Butch Davis’ firing; the Tar Heels are still a strong team in the middle of the ACC. With starting QB Bryn Renner, RB Giovani Bernard, and seven other offensive starters back, North Carolina should be very good in 2012. Obviously, the losses of DE Quinton Coples and LB Zach Brown on defense are hard to overcome, but eight defensive starters return. Next season, it looks like ten of the eleven defensive starters will be upperclassmen. OLB Kevin Reddick could make the early jump to the NFL, but for now I’ll guess that he returns.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: DE Quinton Coples, LB Zach Brown

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 9/7

    BoiseState25. Boise State Broncos: This could be the first year Boise State finally shows a chink in its armor. The loss of efficient QB Kellen Moore is almost too difficult to calculate. Losing RB Doug Martin, a guy who had become a go-to-guy for the Broncos, just makes things worse. Add in that OT Nate Potter is a senior as well and it appears the Broncos will be rebuilding in 2012. Even eight starters leave on defense. Chris Peterson will want to start by finding his next quarterback, something he’s been pretty good at during his days in Boise. Right now, Joe Southwick and Grant Hedrick appear destined to battle for the position throughout the spring.

    NOTABLE SENIORS: QB Kellen Moore, HB Doug Martin, WR Tyler Shoemaker, DT Byron Hout

    PROJECTED TO LEAVE EARLY FOR THE NFL: None

    PROJECTED RETURNING OFF/DEF STARTERS: 4/3

    INFORMATION:
    Logos from Rivals.com.

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  • Daniel Evans 9:26 pm on November 21, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Breaking Down the National Title Game Scenarios 

    The “Chalk” Scenario: LSU beats Arkansas and Georgia to win the SEC Championship game, Alabama beats Auburn to finish 11-1, Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Clemson to win the ACC, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford beats Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: LSU vs. Alabama
    Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
    Sugar Bowl: Houston vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: As unrealistic as it might have looked a few weeks ago, a rematch between Alabama and LSU looks very likely now if both teams win out. Only one thing can stop it from happening in this scenario: Voters. I know the “experts” are saying nothing can get in the way but I completely disagree with them. We’ve seen this script before when a fourth ranked Florida team jumped to No. 2 and into the national title game when Ohio State and Michigan soared into the final week of the regular season ranked one and two. How did it happen? A couple of extraordinary circumstances played a role. First, No.3 USC lost. Under this scenario, Oklahoma State would already be No. 3 because LSU would have defeated Arkansas. Next, Ohio State and Michigan had played a week before and had no championship game during the final week of the season. You can say whatever you want, but today’s world is a “What have you done for me lately” society. Alabama won’t play the final day of the regular season, while LSU plays in the SEC Championship game versus Georgia. Oklahoma State will play Oklahoma, arguably the biggest game of its season, for the Big 12 title. An Oklahoma State win will close up the gap big time and might even provide the Cowboys with a chance to jump over the Tide.

    The “Arkansas” Scenario: Arkansas beats LSU and Georgia to win the SEC Championship game, Alabama beats Auburn to finish 11-1, Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Clemson to win the ACC, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford beats Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: Arkansas vs. LSU
    Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
    Sugar Bowl: Houston vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: Maybe two rematches are a possibility going into this weekend, but I doubt it. Arkansas isn’t perceived to be as strong as LSU or Alabama, despite the ‘Hogs No. 3 BCS ranking. This scenario really throws a wrench in things. I don’t think voters can put LSU behind Alabama because of their win in Tuscaloosa, but the Tide did rock the Razorbacks. Of course, fans in Fayetteville will tell you that Arkansas had to play LSU and Alabama both on the road, while Alabama got both at home. I’ll take LSU and Arkansas to hold on over Oklahoma State by a nose, although I’m not sold on it. With the BCS’ rules stating that only two teams from a single conference can play in a BCS Bowl, Alabama would be stuck in the Capital One Bowl.

    The “Georgia” Scenario: LSU beats Arkansas but loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Alabama beats Auburn to finish 11-1, Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Clemson to win the ACC, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford beats Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: Oklahoma State vs. LSU
    Fiesta Bowl: Houston vs. Stanford
    Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: I think Georgia fans are quietly smiling in Athens, because they know that they still have a chance to screw up the entire national title picture while pocketing a SEC title. If Georgia wins the SEC title, the entire SEC West trio—Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas—would’ve failed to win its own conference. Boy, oh boy does that throw a wrench in things. Honestly—and I know I’m alone in this sentiment—I feel like Georgia has a small (very, very micro-sized chance) of playing for the national title. The Bulldogs will have won eleven straight games if they win the SEC, won the conference perceived as the nation’s best, and will have won against the nation’s top ranked team on the final weekend (no matter who it ends up being). Other upsets would obviously have to take place.

    “The SEC Disaster Scenario”: Arkansas beats LSU but loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Auburn beats Alabama, Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Clemson to win the ACC, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford beats Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
    Fiesta Bowl: Houston vs. Stanford
    Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: In the end, I think this one would end up defaulting itself out. Arkansas would beat LSU but lose to Georgia, moving the Tigers back into the title game as the No. 1 ranked team without winning its own conference. Losses by Alabama and Arkansas would leave them both out of BCS games. Oklahoma State would benefit and play for the national title.

    The “Georgia & Oklahoma” Scenario: LSU beats Arkansas but loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Alabama beats Auburn, Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia and Clemson to win the ACC, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford beats Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: LSU vs. Stanford
    Fiesta Bowl: Houston vs. Oklahoma
    Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: Whew. Now this is getting fun. LSU would probably still get in because their closest competitors (Arkansas, Oklahoma State) would have lost and the Tigers would win a vote over Alabama because LSU defeated the Tide. Since neither LSU or Alabama would win the SEC under this scenario, I don’t see voters letting both of them play for the title. I have Stanford sneaking in, because I think the Cardinal would pass Virginia Tech because of the Hokies’ underwhelming schedule.

    The “Disaster” Scenario: Arkansas beats LSU but loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Auburn beats Alabama, Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 and finish 11-1, Virginia Tech beats Virginia but loses to Clemson in the ACC title game, Oregon beats Oregon State to win the Pac 12, Stanford loses to Notre Dame, and Houston wins out and wins Conference USA to finish 13-0.

    NATIONAL TITLE GAME: Oklahoma vs. LSU
    Fiesta Bowl: Houston vs. Oklahoma State
    Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
    Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Clemson
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

    Thoughts: In this scenario, everyone’s head would be spinning. The top 6 in the latest BCS Standings would have all lost in the final two weeks. LSU would still probably be perceived as the nation’s best team by a lot of people, but Georgia’s win over LSU would look incredible. I think Georgia would jump from 13 to 3 in the final BCS standings. Voters would remember Oklahoma’s win over Oklahoma State more than anything else and the Sooners would play the Tigers for the most unforeseen national title game in recent history. Of course, it could always be Georgia vs. Oklahoma. The Tigers would still have the best overall resume, as long as the voters didn’t fall in love with Georgia for their victory. I think voting LSU as No. 1 would be the right move in this scenario, but I’m not sure the voters would. A two loss Georgia team might sneak in if they could beat the Tigers, as unlikely as that sounds.

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  • Daniel Evans 9:11 pm on November 21, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Best Wins Chart says No. 2 should be OKST, Not ‘Bama 

    By charting all of the nation’s one loss national title contenders, plus undefeated Houston’s best wins, it looks like I think picking a team to play in the national title game should be decided by who has the best wins.

    Not necessarily, but I will say this:

     

    When it comes time to pick the best 68 teams to play in the NCAA basketball Tournament, the Selection Committee looks at best wins. When they pick the 37 at large teams, they compare them by their wins. Losing by one at a top team’s place really doesn’t mean much. Only winning games gets you into the tournament.

    In an imperfect system where nobody can truly say for 100% sure who the top two teams are, this might be the fairest way to vote. Winning games is the only way to show your strength, especially in a college football world without a playoff. Of course, others will say to vote by “best loss”.

    This isn’t the only way to vote or to think about the national championship picture, but it might be a good place to start trying to decide who you think the nation’s second best team is. Obviously, if LSU loses a game, the Tigers would have the best wins out of all the teams on this chart. They’d have beaten Alabama, Oregon, Auburn, and West Virginia. Right now, the Tigers remain undefeated.

    If you think voting this way doesn’t matter, ask CBS’ Gary Danielson. Danielson compared Michigan’s resume to Florida’s resume in 2007 toward the end of the Gators SEC Championship game win. Florida had the better wins and eventually won the vote to play Ohio State in the title game. I truly believe his argument played a big role in the final vote, because he had one of the final arguments in one of the season’s final games on national television.

    Of course, that was before the SEC reeled off five straight national titles. Oklahoma State has better wins than Alabama and Arkansas, but it may not matter. Check out the complete breakdown:

     

    WIN RANK Alabama Oklahoma St. Arkansas Stanford Va Tech Boise State Houston
    1 No. 6 Arkansas No. 11 Kansas St No. 12 So. Carolina @USC (10 in AP poll) @No. 23 Georgia Tech No. 13 Georgia* UCLA
    2 @No. 19 Penn State @No. 25 Texas No. 24 Auburn Washington North Carolina Tulsa @Louisiana Tech
    3 @Florida No. 18 Baylor Texas A&M UCLA @Wake Forest @San Diego St @UTEP
    4 @Mississippi State @Texas A&M Mississippi State California Miami (Fla.) Air Force SMU
    5 Tennessee @Missouri @Vanderbilt Washington State @Duke @Toledo @North Texas
    6 Vanderbilt @Texas Tech Tennessee Colorado Boston College @Fresno State @Tulane
    7 @Ole Miss @Tulsa @Ole Miss @Arizona @Marshall Nevada East Carolina
    8 Kent State Arizona Troy @Oregon State @East Carolina @UNLV Marshall
    9 North Texas Kansas New Mexico @Duke Arkansas State @Colorado State Rice
    10 Georgia Southern Louisiana Lafayette Missouri State San Jose State Appalachian State @UAB
    11 Georgia State
    REM. GAMES @No. 24 Auburn @Oklahoma @No. 1 LSU Notre Dame @Virginia Wyoming
    New Mexico    		 @Tulsa
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  • Daniel Evans 12:18 am on November 20, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Projecting Sunday’s BCS Standings 

    imageThe BCS Championship picture is a lot like a complicated, 1,000 piece puzzle. You dig and dig for the corner pieces. Eventually you see the picture coming together and then your dog or your kid run through it and wreck your hard work.

    Friday morning the BCS title picture was as clear as day as long as No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Oklahoma State won out. This weekend looked like a down one, with the Tigers set to face off against hapless Ole Miss and the Cowboys primed for the Friday night primetime stage against Iowa State.  Next weekend, when the Tigers are to take on Arkansas and December 3rd when the Cowboys were set to take on Oklahoma, was supposed to be the weekend to put both of these teams on upset watch,

    Daniel’s Projected BCS Standings for Sunday
    1. LSU
    2. Alabama
    3. Arkansas
    4. Oklahoma State
    5. Virginia Tech
    6. Stanford
    7. Houston
    8. Boise State
    9. Oregon
    10. Kansas State

    LSU took care of their part of the bargain, but it was 24 hours after Iowa State sent the college football world into a tailspin that it never recovered from Saturday. Iowa State’s 37-31 victory over the Cowboys started a chain-reaction that continued until deep into Saturday night.

    Next, No. 7 Clemson was blown out by N. C. State 37-13. No. 3 Oregon, who had a chance to move up to No. 2 with a win over USC, fell when a last second field goal missed wide right. No. 5 Oklahoma, with a chance to climb into the championship picture, lost a heartbreaker on a late Robert Griffin III touchdown pass for Baylor’s first ever victory over the Sooners.

    Now, we’re left with chaos.

    I began Saturday making a chart of every undefeated and one loss team’s “best wins” placed in order to compare for argument’s sake. I tore it up. Right now, it’s truly anybody’s guess about what might happen in the polls on Sunday.

    One thing that blows my mind appears to be a lock: The nation’s top three teams will all be from the SEC West.

    LSU and Alabama were already No. 1 and No. 2 and with all the upsets Arkansas’ huge win over Mississippi State is likely to propel the Razorbacks to No. 3. No. 4 looks like it might end up being Oklahoma State, whose loss doesn’t look as bad now. Virginia Tech is probably going to rise to No. 5, although the Hokies seem to be completely left out of the argument no matter what. I expect Stanford to move to No. 6, followed by Houston at No. 7, Boise State at No. 8, Oregon at No. 9, and Kansas State at No. 10.

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  • Daniel Evans 5:07 pm on November 2, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Prediction: Alabama 27, LSU 23 (With Complete Box Score) 

    

EMAIL ME: DanielEvans@CollegeFootbalLSaturday.com

    The field at Bryant Denny Stadium is likely to quake beneath the feet of the two giants that will play on it Saturday night. Alabama and LSU are powerhouses built to withstand any test. When they look in the mirror, they see each other. While both fanbases will tell you why their team is going to win without hesitation, both are wrong. I don’t think either team is necessarily better and the advantageous either side has are very small.

    For the last month, you’ve heard every statistical reason why Alabama or LSU will win the “Game of the Century” this weekend in Tuscaloosa. Well, you haven’t seen a breakdown like this.

    Forget for a minute that Alabama’s defense is number one in the country, allowing less than a touchdown per game at 6.88 points. LSU is allowing only 11.5 points per game, but forget that too.

    Ignore the uncanny offensive stats that show that LSU and Alabama are nearly the exact same team in different uniforms. Don’t bother remembering that Alabama averages 39.38 points per game and LSU averages 39.25 points per game.

    Throw out that since 2007, when Nick Saban became Alabama’s head coach, the average score in this game has been 26-25.

    I’m about to tell you everything you need to know about Alabama-LSU and at the end of the article you’ll know who will win, what the score will be, and you’ll get a complete offensive box score.

    First of all, the most important advantage in this game has nothing to do with the players. The fans at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday are the best thing going for Alabama. Since 2008, Alabama has lost one game at home. Ask any Alabama fan and he or she tell you that it took a dazzling second half from Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton for that one loss to take place.

    In other words, Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide defend Bryant Denny like their lives depend on it. When you’re in contention to win a national title every year, defending your home stadium is obviously important and Saban coached teams are among the best at it.

    LSU may have two quarterbacks, but it is the Crimson Tide that throws the ball more. The Tigers want to run the ball with their trio of powerful running backs. Jarrett Lee has been very effective this season, throwing 13 touchdowns compared to only 1 INT, but he’s also thrown the ball 45 less times than Alabama quarterback A. J. McCarron. 45 times. Both offenses run about 66 plays per game and LSU averages keeping the ball on the ground 44 of those 66. Alabama is more balanced, running the ball around 59% of the time.

    For those football geeks that believe keeping a balanced offense is the way to knock off these two powerhouses, think again. Opponents of the Tide and Tigers average out to be extremely balanced, but it hasn’t helped. Here’s guessing that throwing every down like Texas Tech or running every play like Georgia Tech wouldn’t be effective either.

    I think it is also important to throw out the coaching matchup numbers. Neither coach has an advantage because both teams are coming off of a bye. I don’t care what the stats show when Miles and Saban come off of a bye, because in two weeks both coaches will have their teams very prepared. Remember, between this duo is three national titles. Who am I to say that one is better than the other at getting their team prepared? And really, who cares how good Saban is against a team that his squad lost to the previous year?

    Don’t expect a 10-7 or 13-10 type game. Generally, these types of games usually end up more high scoring than low scoring. Both of these offenses are extremely methodical. They both have effective passers and powerful running backs that move the chains. At times, I think that is overlooked because the two defenses are so dominant.

    Now, let’s take a look at how each team’s gameplan will probably look (Technically, both gameplans are going to be eerily similar.):

    Alabama’s Gameplan:

    1) How effective can the running game be? Alabama wants to run Trent Richardson as many times as possible, because that keeps pressure off of A. J. McCarron. The running game sets up the passing game and that is the key to a Saban type offensive system. If Alabama is forced to throw the ball in spots where LSU knows the Crimson Tide is passing, cornerbacks Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne can make plays on the football. Limiting the number of footballs Mathieu and Claiborne get their hands on is a huge key to this game.  They’ve already combined to touch the football on 23 pass plays by their opponents this season. LSU’s opponents have thrown the ball 254 times this year, so roughly 9% of the time Mathieu or Claiborne tip, deflect, or intercept the football on pass plays. Considering that LSU only allows receivers to catch 3.4 passes per game against SEC opponents, nine percent is a great deal of the passes thrown towards the two star cornerbacks.  In case you’re wondering, Alabama receivers usually catch 11.625 passes per game. LSU allows opposing receivers to catch 9.5 receptions per game, but during SEC play that number has dropped to only 3.4 catches per game. Sure, they’ve played some terrible quarterbacks—Chris Relf, Morgan Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Matt Simms, and Clint Moseley—but that’s still impressive. Alabama has to use the play action pass to back up LSU’s defense.

    2) Special teams. Alabama has given up some big kick returns this year (see the Florida game). Even if they hadn’t, special teams usually make a huge difference in big games. Both kickers have missed two field goals this year. The Crimson Tide’s Jeremy Shelley has made 76% of his field goal attempts in his college career. His long this year is 37 yards and his career long is only 42 yards. Cade Foster generally tries the longer field attempts for the Crimson Tide, but he’s only 1 of 3 this year with two misses from 50 yards or longer. To avoid kicking field goals, Alabama needs to stay true to what they do in the redzone. I’d rather take three chances with Trent Richardson at the goaline than throw twice and then be in a third and goal situation. Even with that, there is going to be some field goals in this game. The defenses are just too good to give up a lot of touchdowns.

    3) Alabama’s defense early in games has been very shaky. In nearly every SEC game, Alabama has given up a big play early and has fallen behind. The Crimson Tide will need to avoid that in a game where every yard figures to be precious. Nick Saban doesn’t want to give up a touchdown early, go three and out offensively, and then watch LSU take a 10-0 lead. The Crimson Tide trailed 7-0 to Florida, 7-0 to Mississippi, and were tied 6-6 with Tennessee at halftime. None of those teams are in the same ballpark as the Crimson Tide. Alabama may not be able to wake up late and survive this one. 

    LSU’s gameplan isn’t much different:

    1) Run, run, run. Look, Jarrett Lee has been as effective as any quarterback in the country, but one of the biggest reasons for that efficiency is LSU’s running game. Throwing the ball 20-25 times per game in today’s football is the equivalent to lying in a hammock on the beach on a red flag day. If you stay out of the water, you can stay out of trouble. LSU doesn’t need to abandon the running game, even if the Tigers find themselves in an early hole. The trio of running backs the Tigers have at their disposal—including the powerful Spencer Ware—is one of their biggest advantages. Alabama may have the best running back on the field, but LSU has the best trio.

    2) Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu have to have huge days. If the Tigers can load up the box and slow down Richardson, the main reason will be because Claiborne and Mathieu were able to shut down Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks on play action passes. If LSU can effectively throw these guys out on an island against Alabama’s wide receivers, the Tigers might win this game by two touchdowns or more. I have never seen a team with two shutdown corners at the collegiate level, but LSU is the closest thing to it.  Like I said, they get their hands on most balls in their area.

    3) Jordan Jefferson may have to make a big play or two. Jefferson has been effective in limited playing time this season. Miles seems to always know the perfect time to put him into the game to mix things up. With two weeks to prepare, Saban will probably be able to guess what plays Jefferson is usually brought in to run. It was important to let him throw a touchdown pass to Reuben Randle against Auburn, because it showed the Crimson Tide that Miles still trusts him to run the entire playbook, if needed. Jefferson is averaging around nine snaps per game this season. If you throw out the Tennessee game (where Jefferson ran the ball 14 times), he is only getting around five snaps per contest. A lot of people feel like Miles “saved” Jefferson for this game. I don’t think he did. I think Jefferson will play, and he might play more than he has all season, but I don’t think you’ll see anything out of the ordinary when he enters.

    Prediction: I predicted every offensive stat for this game and honestly, I feel like the projections came out very good. I don’t think either team will be extremely effective on offense and the projection has each quarterback throwing an interception. I think Lee will throw for under 100 yards, but still find a way to throw a couple of touchdowns. If my prediction holds true, Trent Richardson isn’t going to become the Heisman frontrunner after this game, even if Alabama wins. I have the tailback gaining 84 yards on 18 carries.

    This game will be as close as most believe it will be. My prediction says the Crimson Tide will win 27-23. It makes sense. Generally the team with the most talent is the safe team to take (or the team with the biggest game changing player), but in this matchup that comes out a wash. Therefore, I’ll take the home team. Alabama 27-LSU 23.

    NOTES ON PROJECTED BOX SCORE:

    1) I’d have loved to have posted a complete box score with kick returns and punt returns and all of that jazz, but I didn’t feel it was needed. The projection does not call for a punt or kickoff return touchdown by either team. The numbers also do not call for a non-offensive touchdown from either side.

    2) No, I will not give out the formula I used.

    3) If you have a media inquiry please email me DanielEvans@CollegeFootballSaturday.com.

     

    BOX SCORE

    PREDICTION: ALABAMA 27, LSU 23

    QBS

    COMP

    ATT

    YARDS

    TDS

    INTS

    A. J. McCarron

    13

    25

    172

    2

    1

    Jarrett Lee

    13

    23

    86

    2

    1

    Jordan Jefferson

    1

    2

    17

    0

    0

    RBS

    RUSHES

    YARDS

    TDS

    Trent Richardson

    18

    84

    1

    Eddie Lacy

    8

    49

    0

    Spencer Ware

    14

    39

    0

    Alfred Blue

    6

    18

    0

    Michael Ford

    9

    31

    0

    Kenny Hilliard

    4

    15

    0

    Jordan Jefferson

    3

    9

    0

    WRS

    Catches

    Yards

    TDS

    Marquis Maze

    4

    50

    1

    Darius Hanks

    2

    24

    0

    Trent Richardson

    2

    22

    0

    Kenny Bell

    1

    17

    0

    Brad Smelley

    1

    15

    0

    Michael Williams

    1

    15

    1

    DeAndrew White

    1

    12

    0

    Eddie Lacy

    1

    9

    0

    Brandon Gibson

    1

    8

    0

    Rueben Randle

    4

    52

    1

    Odell Beckham

    4

    27

    1

    Deangelo Peterson

    2

    9

    0

    Russell Shepard

    1

    7

    0

    Kadron Boone

    1

    4

    0

    Spencer Ware

    1

    4

    0

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  • Daniel Evans 10:17 pm on October 22, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Michigan State beats Wisconsin on Miracle 

    The Michigan State-Wisconsin game is one that we’ll all be talking about for a long, long time.

    Michigan State led most of the night, but Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson rallied the Badgers in the fourth quarter and all of a sudden a game that seemed like Michigan State’s to lose was tied. The Spartans had let a late 14 point lead slip away and Wisconsin seemed on the verge of saving its national championship hopes

    With :04 on the clock, Michigan State had the ball at the Wisconsin 44 yard line. The scoreboard read 31-31. Short of a miracle, the No. 6 Badgers had found a way to force overtime in East Lansing.

    On the final play, Spartans quarterback Kirk Cousins lofted a pass into the endzone, where the ball deflected off of a Badgers player and a Spartans player before landing in the hands of Michigan State’s Keith Nichol for—what else—a miracle.  Nichol caught the pass at the 1 yard line and turned into the endzone for a hailmary touchdown that will keep the college football world talking for a long, long time.

    Spartans fans stormed the field to celebrate one of the craziest finishes in college football since Boise State’s hook and ladder/statue of liberty play stunned Oklahoma.

    For Wisconsin, the loss means that for the second straight year, Michigan State has ruined what could have been a perfect season for the Badgers. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson threw two interceptions before leading the Badgers on scoring drives to tie the game in the closing minutes, but his Heisman hopes are severely dashed by this loss.

    For the Spartans, the victory means that Michigan State could realistically match last season’s 11-1 regular season record. Michigan State fans are probably still wondering how Sparty found a way to loss to Notre Dame four weeks ago, because the MSU outgained the Irish. If not for that loss, a perfect season would be a reasonable expectation for a team with one of the nation’s top ranked defense and a senior quarterback that seems to make all of the right reads. The Spartans have to be the new favorites for the Big Ten title. In tomorrow’s poll, Michigan State will probably be a top ten team.

    Anyone that wants to see this game again, may get a chance. The Spartans and Badgers play in separate divisions in the newly aligned Big Ten—making a championship game between these two teams very possible.

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